Forums The Vibe Chat Confirmation bias

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  • #1055547
    Anonymous

      After spending too much time reading so many bizarrely illogical belief systems, ideas, concepts and so on I thought I would post this. I doubt anyone will bother to read it let alone let it alter their perception of the world but it is something that affects us all (myself included obviously). I have posted a nice simple wiki link but feel free to dig into the research behind it. It happens on PV a lot and drives me a bit mad (usually leading to my annoying rants).

      Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. For example, in reading about current political issues, people usually prefer sources that affirm their existing attitudes. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position…

      Confirmation bias – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

      #1271047
      DaftFader
      Participant

        Oh yeah this is very true, I’ve known about this for a while, and it’s what “keeping an open mind” really means imo. Don’t let your self get into a one track way of thinking.

        #1271039
        Anonymous

          @DaftFader 538191 wrote:

          Oh yeah this is very true, I’ve known about this for a while, and it’s what “keeping an open mind” really means imo. Don’t let your self get into a one track way of thinking.

          Good stuff hopefully people do know about it it seems quite important really. I certainly try to bare it in mind when I form viewpoints though its hard as its such a natural process.

          #1271062
          Deez
          Participant

            @photographthesun 538186 wrote:

            After spending too much time reading so many bizarrely illogical belief systems, ideas, concepts and so on I thought I would post this. I doubt anyone will bother to read it let alone let it alter their perception of the world but it is something that affects us all (myself included obviously). I have posted a nice simple wiki link but feel free to dig into the research behind it. It happens on PV a lot and drives me a bit mad (usually leading to my annoying rants).

            Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. For example, in reading about current political issues, people usually prefer sources that affirm their existing attitudes. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position…

            Confirmation bias – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

            Interesting read man, I didn’t know about this but it does make sense. I think I suffer from this quite a bit, but my guess is everyone does to some extent? Hmm, going to read up on it more.

            #1271040
            Anonymous

              @DeezNuts 538194 wrote:

              Interesting read man, I didn’t know about this but it does make sense. I think I suffer from this quite a bit, but my guess is everyone does to some extent? Hmm, going to read up on it more.

              Everyone does nearly all the time, the more you are aware of it the more you can see it.

              #1271049
              barrettone
              Participant

                You might like to read a really interesting book I read recently, called “You Are Not So Smart” by David McRaney. It goes through stuff like confirmation bias, texas sharpshooter fallacy, procrastination, and a bunch of other logical fallacies/tricks your brain can play on you with examples from research and whatnot. It’s also rather funny to boot.

                #1271060
                Chrispydelic
                Participant

                  It’s impossible not to do this as we each perceive the world differently according to a series of subconscious ‘filter’s that all information must go through before it is allowed to reach our conscious mind. This makes free thinking almost impossible as all that we perceive is as a result of the rules that have been learned about the world up to this point.

                  This is somewhat affected by the effects of social camouflage but not enough to permanently alter our beliefs as we are an egocentric consciousness.

                  #1271050
                  barrettone
                  Participant

                    @Chrispydelic 538251 wrote:

                    It’s impossible not to do this as we each perceive the world differently according to a series of subconscious ‘filter’s that all information must go through before it is allowed to reach our conscious mind. This makes free thinking almost impossible as all that we perceive is as a result of the rules that have been learned about the world up to this point.

                    This is somewhat affected by the effects of social camouflage but not enough to permanently alter our beliefs as we are an egocentric consciousness.

                    If you’re aware that you’re doing it, you can act against it. It’s when you do it but are oblivious to it that it becomes an issue.

                    #1271041
                    Anonymous

                      @Chrispydelic 538251 wrote:

                      It’s impossible not to do this as we each perceive the world differently according to a series of subconscious ‘filter’s that all information must go through before it is allowed to reach our conscious mind. This makes free thinking almost impossible as all that we perceive is as a result of the rules that have been learned about the world up to this point.

                      This is somewhat affected by the effects of social camouflage but not enough to permanently alter our beliefs as we are an egocentric consciousness.

                      I think by knowing its possible we can look out for it and make different choices but its definitely part of human nature and would be impossible to not have. If your interested this is worth a listen, interesting selection of viewpoints and not to heavy.

                      BBC Radio 4 – Jon Ronson On, Series 7, Voices in the Head

                      Writer and documentary maker Jon Ronson returns for another five-part series of fascinating stories shedding light on the human condition.

                      In the first programme, he investigates confirmation bias – or why so many people look for evidence that confirms their pre-existing beliefs.

                      Jon believes he may be susceptible to confirmation bias himself. Over the last two years he has kept noticing that the time on his phone is 11.11. After looking on the internet, he found out there are many other people also doing this, including Uri Geller who first started noticing the number 11 over twenty years ago. Jon has also discovered that a particular community of people believe 11.11 is a sign for a new spirit guide who will come to earth, coincidentally known as Monjoronson. He speaks to the owner of the Monjoronson web domain, Ron Besser, and asks if it is possible that Jon himself is the spirit guide they’re looking for.

                      Jon talks to other people who have been affected by confirmation bias, including an Oxford academic who believes her fate can be determined by looking at two lip balm pots.

                      The journalist David Aaronovitch says he believed the delusions he had while suffering intensive care psychosis after a routine operation were real.

                      Lotfi Raissi, the first person to be charged in connection with the September 11th attacks, tells Jon he believes his arrest was down to confirmation bias because he fitted a certain profile. A judge found there was no evidence to link Raissi to any form of terrorism.

                      Finally Jon speaks to the lawyer Clive Stafford Smith, who believes people who are prone to confirmation bias are more likely to be recruited to police forces.

                      #1271048
                      Clusterfrog
                      Participant

                        eeeeveryone does this all the time ๐Ÿ˜›

                        #1271042
                        Anonymous

                          @Clusterfrog 538254 wrote:

                          eeeeveryone does this all the time ๐Ÿ˜›

                          Most definitely, the more I notice myself doing it the more fun its getting. I will be like buddha himself by the end of the week.

                          #1271061
                          Chrispydelic
                          Participant

                            @barrettone 538252 wrote:

                            If you’re aware that you’re doing it, you can act against it. It’s when you do it but are oblivious to it that it becomes an issue.

                            The problem is that it is a subconscious function for filtering information by attributing all information to the ‘truth’ of the rules we have already made.

                            The subconscious has many functions that it runs constantly and that you don’t have to think about like blinking, breathing and other ‘automated’ functions. Then there are the ones that you have no control over like the releasing of certain neurotransmitter chemicals, the beating of your heart, digestion and a myriad of other functions that the brain is controlling. These rules are just a part of that immensely complicated program.

                            Ignoring proof that the sky is blue (when you believe it to be pink) is not part of this phenomena and people do adjust their set of rules constantly so that each day (or even each minute) we perceive the world slightly differently.

                            It is very hard re re-write rules that have been ‘hard-wired’ into the subconscious. This is where hypnosis comes in.

                            At the end of the day we see what we want to see.

                            #1271051
                            barrettone
                            Participant

                              @Chrispydelic 538257 wrote:

                              The problem is that it is a subconscious function for filtering information by attributing all information to the ‘truth’ of the rules we have already made.

                              The subconscious has many functions that it runs constantly and that you don’t have to think about like blinking, breathing and other ‘automated’ functions. Then there are the ones that you have no control over like the releasing of certain neurotransmitter chemicals, the beating of your heart, digestion and a myriad of other functions that the brain is controlling. These rules are just a part of that immensely complicated program.

                              Ignoring proof that the sky is blue (when you believe it to be pink) is not part of this phenomena and people do adjust their set of rules constantly so that each day (or even each minute) we perceive the world slightly differently.

                              It is very hard re re-write rules that have been ‘hard-wired’ into the subconscious. This is where hypnosis comes in.

                              At the end of the day we see what we want to see.

                              You can always look for evidence contrary to your beliefs. For example during the 2008 presidential elections in the U.S. they studied people’s purchasing habits on amazon. People who supported Obama were more likely to purchase books that painted him in a positive light, while people who already disliked him were buying ones that paint him in a negative light.

                              Things like this are why good journalists looking to tell a certain story have to avoid ignoring evidence to the contrary, and well-designed science experiments must avoid leaving little wiggle room for outcomes that go against the hypothesis. By seeking out evidence/opinions contrary to yours, you can in turn modify your own views, and even learn more about them. It’s not easy, because new information makes us feel uncomfortable if it challenges our preconceived notions, but it is possible, and we must remember that reality does not bend to our will.

                              Re-writing rules in your subsconcious is part of what Hebbian theory of learning is about. Your brain rewires itself the more you do something, because the more you use certain neural pathways, the more your brain will wire them in a certain configuration (which is why experts at certain skills can do things nearly automatically with seemingly no effort expended, such as virtuoso musicians or pro athletes.) If you train yourself to look for things that go against what you believe, you can do it.

                              #1271057
                              Pat McDonald
                              Participant

                                Yup. People deceive themselves with what “seems” true, even if faced with non-conforming data that conflicts with their beliefs.

                                Part of the reason why Atheists argue so much… useful up to a point, but if no action ever results, just a waste of time.

                                #1271052
                                barrettone
                                Participant

                                  @Pat McDonald 538275 wrote:

                                  Yup. People deceive themselves with what “seems” true, even if faced with non-conforming data that conflicts with their beliefs.

                                  Part of the reason why Atheists argue so much… useful up to a point, but if no action ever results, just a waste of time.

                                  It is very difficult to give up your preconceived notions at times. Even some very intelligent people are prone to this. Einstein, at times, when arguing against quantum mechanics sounded exactly like the detractors to his theories of relativity. But many a time the things that are worth doing are not necessarily the easiest.

                                  #1271058
                                  Pat McDonald
                                  Participant

                                    @barrettone 538279 wrote:

                                    It is very difficult to give up your preconceived notions at times. Even some very intelligent people are prone to this. Einstein, at times, when arguing against quantum mechanics sounded exactly like the detractors to his theories of relativity. But many a time the things that are worth doing are not necessarily the easiest.

                                    I am not asking you to give up my pre-conceived ideas and I don’t pretend to have heard Einstein talk…

                                    … Good book, “Vital Lies, Simple Truths: Psychology of Self Deception” by Daniel Goleman. Bit old now, 80s I think, but he’s done some amazing books.

                                    #1271043
                                    Anonymous

                                      @Pat McDonald 538313 wrote:

                                      I am not asking you to give up my pre-conceived ideas and I don’t pretend to have heard Einstein talk…

                                      … Good book, “Vital Lies, Simple Truths: Psychology of Self Deception” by Daniel Goleman. Bit old now, 80s I think, but he’s done some amazing books.

                                      Blimey the 80s really were the early days of Psychology. Anyone who has seen the BBC production of The Prisoner knows know lol

                                      #1271059
                                      Pat McDonald
                                      Participant

                                        It is a rather sad fact that a “current” curriculum for a first time degree student is approximately 20 years behind the times.

                                        A levels somewhat further behind, of course. ๐Ÿ˜‰

                                        And no thank you, I have no wish to get my “facts” from a State Sponsored Arselick organisation like the BBC. ๐Ÿ™‚

                                        #1271045
                                        Tank Girl
                                        Participant

                                          This is really common in everyday life, i certainly am aware when im engsging in it and hace to take a step back on occasion, but its esp common when people are unwell with depeession ir anxiety / panic
                                          You know the whole ‘the world is against me’, ‘everything I do fails’ hence its big part of thought challenging in cbt

                                          #1271054
                                          Lshak
                                          Participant

                                            Not read the page but basically…

                                            It’s influence from external thoughts, just said in a much longer way…?

                                            I think the most open minded people get influenced the easiest, close minded people believe in their system and theirs alone, I’m happy that I’m open minded and have had the opportunity to explore many areas in life, from spiritualism, Buddhism, religion, drugs and many many more. It’s good to finally find a final conclusion that suits and fits into your life.

                                            #1271053
                                            barrettone
                                            Participant

                                              No, it’s finding only evidence that fits your preconceived notions, rather than entertaining information or thoughts that could challenge your beliefs.

                                              I don’t believe in final conclusions. The only final conclusion is death.

                                              #1271055
                                              Lshak
                                              Participant

                                                That is true, death is the only inevitable thing in this life.

                                                And there are final conclusions, one of many of mine is, that I will always love my family and myself. One of many final conclusions I have ๐Ÿ™‚

                                                #1271046
                                                Tank Girl
                                                Participant

                                                  death and taxes :p

                                                  #1271056
                                                  Lshak
                                                  Participant

                                                    Cramp, sleep, pins and needles, quite a lot of inevitable things actually

                                                    #1271044
                                                    thelog
                                                    Participant

                                                      The only thing I have on my cards is possible sex with my hand.

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                                                    Forums The Vibe Chat Confirmation bias